Patrick Reeves has traded equity and fixed income futures on a
professional basis for over fifteen years. His market advisory service,
Futures 2000, is read by more than fifteen hundred subscribers every
day. He has spoken at numerous industry conferences around the world
and is about to publish a book through John Wiley & Sons entitled
"Tools of the Successful Trader."
While participating in several conferences and seminars
on trading, I have had the opportunity to learn from many of the
world's foremost experts on trading psychology. Much of what I have
heard and read seems to fit quite nicely with my own 31 years of
trading experience. Often examples cited by the speaker or author
would call to mind past trading practices and attitudes that I have
had to modify, to conquer, to solidify so as to enable me to operate
in a long term profitable mode.
The short term is but a small part of a much larger
long term picture. That is to say that one trade is just one trade.
Win or lose, you must move on to the next trading situation. You
cannot afford the luxury of omnipotence nor the gloom of despondence.
Each trader in his own way must develop the ability to keep on going.
You may have many failing trades and still win the long term pursuit
of trading profits. But you have to keep going.
Each trader must develop a personal risk management
program. Part of this risk management approach must include a definitive
method of removing trading profits from the market. Deployment of
these profits are best directed to a lower risk category of investment.
Each trader must learn to deal with uncertainty. Most trading situations
are neither black nor white but a shade of gray. Trading is an uncertain
art form. If you wait for certainty, it is to late. The profit opportunity
is gone. Each trader must develop the ability to focus. A one market
approach may be the answer for some traders while a single trading
approach to several markets may prove to be successful for other
traders.
The successful trader will:
- identify a signal or a market opportunity
- react decisively
- feel good - whether he wins or loses
- demonstrate self confidence
- exercise his independence
Barriers To Successful Trading
Refusing to take a loss is one of the more prominent reasons for
failure in the trading game. It usually starts with the lack of
a defined exit point when a trade is executed. Ask yourself: "Where
and when do I get out if I am wrong?".
Why are you trading? Do
you fully understand what your goals are as a trader? Trading is
somewhat like golf. There are a vast number of golfers that enjoy
the activity but they will never make a living at it. They incur
the cost of club memberships, cart rentals, equipment, reading literature,
private and group instruction, and so on. I would venture to say
that most of these golfers have no intention of making money playing
the game and they know that. They know why they participate.. And
for the few that go on to make a living at the game, they work their
"tails" off day after day. They are willing to pay the price of
success.
What about traders? It
is common belief that 85% to 90% of traders lose money in any given
year. All traders incur cost such as equipment purchase or rental,
subscriptions to trade journals and newspapers, private and group
instruction and so on. Unlike the golfer, most traders have the
intention of making money through their trading activities although
they do not know quite how this is going to come about. They do
not work their "tails" off day after day. They are looking for something
easy. Often they lack a clear understanding of their motivation
for trading.
Certain Trading Types
The suicidal trading type
is bent on committing financial extinction by jumping in front of
moving trains. They insist on selling into run away markets only
to see the market move higher. At this point, (they reason) it has
to be a better sell than the first position. After all, they are
selling at a higher price. And of course they love to buy a market
that is falling "out of bed". And the next day when prices are even
lower, wow, another bargain. These guys always think that they see
the light at the end of the tunnel. The only problem is this light
is on the front end of a locomotive. Many of these suicidal types
love to point out that they have (had) a $100,000 trading account.
They know a bargain when they see one. After all they made their
money snapping up bargains in their other life.
The euphoric trading type
has no plan of withdrawing profits from the trading account. A hot
streak comes along and each successive trade is larger than the
first as all profits are plowed right back into the market until
the loss comes while our euphoric trader is up to his eyeballs in
contracts. Not only does he give back all of the profits, often
the account is wiped out and possibly more.
Your Trading Profile
"Know Thyself"
Why are you trading? What are your objectives as a trader?
What is your strength? What is your weakness? Are you persistent?
Do you have courage? If you do not have a satisfactory response
for any of the previous questions, now is the time to work on this.
There is no one correct answer to any of these questions. Only your
answers. However, if you are kidding yourself, you will not fool
the market.
"Know Your Market"
All markets have a personality of their own. There are important
reports that can and will cause unusual volatility and periods of
illiquidity. The more you know about the market you are trading,
the greater your trading advantage.
Identify and Develop Your Trading Type
Are You A Mechanical Style Trader?
Do you have study time, desire, persistence, and emotional control?
If you lack any of these characteristics, then perhaps you should
consider a mechanical approach to trading.
The successful mechanical trader will:
- accept the fact that a mechanical trading method is a compromise
between the goal of eliminating the poorest trades and retaining
the best trades. This fact will insure that at times a good trade
will not be followed and at times a poor trade will be followed.
- accept the fact that a mechanical trading method can only succeed
if the method is consistently followed.
Are You An Intuitive Style Trader?
Do you have study time, desire, persistence, and emotional
control? If you have all of these characteristics, then develop
your trading style by emphasizing the "Art of Trading".
The successful intuitive trader will:
- trade what she/he sees - not what she/he thinks
- be patient, willingly to wait for the good trading opportunity
and then pull the trigger
- forego the marginal trades
- will not trade just for excitement
- do the daily homework necessary to hone their trading skills
Persistence...
"Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent
will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.
Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education
will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and
determination alone are omnipotent." -- Calvin Coolidge
The above quotes strike me as being appropriate for
all of us engaged in the endless quest of trading profits. I make
it a point to review these statements on a regular basis as I am
well aware of the fact that I am only as good or bad as my last
trade. I accept the fact that I will never have it "made" as a trader.
Each and every day is a new trading situation and I must be prepared
with my trading plan. I must PLAN MY TRADE AND TRADE MY PLAN.
In my opinion -- Trading
Is An Art and mechanical trading methods and indicators are
best used as just another tool in the practice of:
THE ART OF TRADING
Diversification achieved
by trading a variety of markets is a mistake for most individual
traders. Every market has its own characteristics and a singular
trading plan will not work equally as well in all markets. You may
well improve your trading success by learning one market with the
goal of becoming the best possible student of this selected market.
You may find that trading just one side of this market the key to
your success.
Learn To Survive
There are as many methods of trading as there are traders. Every
trader is different and no one trading approach is right for all
traders. Find the methods that work for you and then concentrate
on repeating these techniques.
Take Time Out
Every trade consumes emotional energy and a tired trader is a handicapped
trader. Take a break - go on a vacation. Get away from the markets
- spend some time with family and friends. Trading from a position
of emotional strength is as important as trading from a position
of financial strength.
The First Calculation Is Risk
The first question concerning any trade concerns risk or the amount
you are willing to lose. If the protective stop has to be placed
where the loss exceeds your comfort level - either move the stop
closer or DO NOT TAKE THE TRADE.
Remove Part Of Your Trading Profits
from your account. The first objective is to remove enough profits
from the trading account to cover the initial starting amount. This
can be achieved by removing 50% of trading profits above a set amount.
If you start with $8,000, remove 50% of any profits when the account
moves above the $10,000 level. When you have removed $8,000 from
the account, you will then be trading on money gained from the market.
Once your account reaches the $30,000 level remove all profits above
the $30,000 level. Continue to trade within these guidelines until
you feel very secure in the number of contracts you are trading.
Eventually you may feel secure enough to slowly increase the account
size.
Trading "Size" Is More Than Just Adding Contracts
The pressure from adding more contracts increases geometrically
as the number of contracts increases arithmetically. Whatever number
of contracts you are trading successfully, stay with that number.
Otherwise, you will find yourself taking a loss on 10 contracts
and then you decide to cut back and trade only 3 contracts on the
next signal which turns out to be a winner and the end result is
a profit that does not equal the loss on the previous trade of 10
contracts.
FIND YOUR TRADING COMFORT LEVEL AND STAY WITH IT FOR
A LONG, LONG, TIME. WHEN YOU FEEL THAT YOU ARE A SUCCESSFUL TRADER,
AN AGGRESSIVE USE OF YOUR ACCOUNT FOR TRADING THE FULL SIZE BOND
CONTRACT WOULD BE AS FOLLOWS:
Account Size: $8,000 Trade 1 Contract
Account Size: $14,000 Trade 2 Contracts
Account Size: $20,000 Trade 3 Contracts
Account Size: $25,000 Trade 4 Contracts
Account Size: $30,000 Trade 5 Contracts
When your account reaches the $25,000 level, have
your broker purchase a $10,000 T-Bill which will then be used for
initial margin requirements.
A Solid Financial Foundation
Trading is a highly speculative business and one never knows when
a trading "accident" is about to happen. If you trade, sooner or
later you will "wipe out" your account. If fact, you may wipe out
your account a number of times. You must plan for this and more
importantly, you must have a plan for recovery. All traders lose
money. It is the trader that has the ability to recover and to move
on to a profitable position that will succeed in the long run.
The average investor that uses trading as a part of
his portfolio should limit trading activities to no more than 10%
of his total investment funds. For each year of the traders age,
1% of his investment funds should be placed in U.S. Government Notes
and Bonds. This is accomplished by using a TREASURY DIRECT ACCOUNT.
The remaining investment funds should be allocated to a systematic
program of investing in common stock growth funds. This can be accomplished
the rough the use of no-load mutual funds spread over such areas
as International Funds, Index Funds, and small cap stock funds.
A dollar cost average approach is the best way to handle the fund
investments.
Any portion of your portfolio that involves trading
falls within the 10% limit of your total investment funds. This
includes futures trading, stock trading, and mutual fund timing.
Before Becoming A Full Time Trader
Get completely out of debt. Pay off the house mortgage and the car
loan. Carry no balances on your charge cards. Only charge what you
can pay off in full each and every month. Accumulate a significant
reserve of cash invested in three or six month Treasury Bills. This
can be done through your TREASURY DIRECT ACCOUNT. As soon as you
are trading full time, set up Keogh and Money Purchase retirement
plans and contribute the maximum amount each year.
The Individual Trading Plan
Some traders operate best from one side of the market.
If this is your situation, then build your trading plan around your
strength. If you trade best from the long side, trade only the buy
signals. If the short side is your strong suit, then trade only
the sell signals.
Many traders will successfully operate from either
side. Their trading plan will follow both valid buy and sell signals
as they are as comfortable being short as being long.
Trading size is directly related to our ability to
withstand a loss. Once you exceed your comfort level by increasing
your trading size, it will be difficult for you to carry out your
trading plan. Find your trading toleration and then stick to it.
A range of contract size such as 1 to 5 contracts may prove to be
an acceptable level of trading for some individuals while being
unacceptable to other traders. It is a good practice to trade a
different number of contracts for different trading situations.
The number of contracts associated with any particular
entry signal is decided upon by a variety of considerations. The
first entry signal of a new direction in the market usually will
reach its profit objective with the least amount of adverse price
movement whereas a later entry signal in the same direction may
encounter difficulty in reaching its profit objective. When a new
direction begins, put your full position on with the first signal.
Later signals in the same direction should be traded with a smaller
number of contracts.
Your Trading Plan
The implementation of your trading plan will be evaluated
by the market place and your grades will be posted trade by trade,
month by month, year by year. Consistent failing grades should alert
you to either a need to change your plan or how you are carrying
out your plan. Do you give up because you have failing grades? Of
course not. It takes years of trading experience to become a good
trader. While I cannot guarantee successful for everyone, relatively
few traders are successful early on.. If they are, it usually is
a fluke and it is but a short time and they give back most of their
profits and then some to the market place.
Patience, Courage,
and Persistence are all required ingredients in the recipe
of successful trading.
What Is Your Position
Are you long, having bought with the idea that prices are headed
higher, or are you short, having sold because you feel prices are
surely headed lower? How about flat? Is there anyone on the sidelines
awaiting the next entry signal? As a position, being flat is as
important as being long or being short. Many traders, to the detriment
of their trading health, have the mistaken idea that a sideline
position is tantamount to not participating. They insist on being
in the market at all times worried t hat they may miss a trading
opportunity.